Old Farmer's Almanac predicts Kansas will see 'season of shivers,' 'extreme wintry mix' and 'super cold'

Tim Hrenchir
Topeka Capital-Journal
The recently published 2022 Old Farmer's Almanac, shown here, predicts the coming winter will be "super cold" and bring above-average snowfall to this area.

Most Kansans are in for a "season of shivers" this coming winter, according to the Old Farmer's Almanac.

The eastern two-thirds of Kansas is among areas expected to see an "extreme wintry mix" of above-average snowfall and "super cold," according to the recently published 2022 edition of the almanac, which has been put out since 1792.

“This coming winter could well be one of the longest and coldest that we’ve seen in years,” said the almanac's editor, Janice Stillman, in a news release.

Meteorologists question the almanac's predictions, saying its methodology of using solar activity to forecast the weather on earth has no established scientific basis.

How does the Farmer's Almanac predict the weather?

The almanac claims its predictions over the years have been 80% accurate, though a study conducted by the University of Illinois concluded they have only been 52% accurate.

The almanac creates its forecasts using a secret mathematical and astronomical formula that involves comparing current solar activity with solar patterns and historical weather conditions..

That formula was developed in 1792 by the almanac's founder, Robert B. Thomas, who thought that magnetic storms on the surface of the sun dictate the earth’s weather, according to the almanac's website.

"Notes about his formula are locked in a black box in our offices in Dublin, New Hampshire," that site says.

How cold does the Farmer's Almanac say it will get here?

This year's almanac shares separate forecasts for 18 geographic regions of the U.S.

Areas the almanac predicts will see a colder-than-normal winter include the "heartland," which includes Iowa, the eastern half of Nebraska, the eastern two-thirds of Kansas and all of Missouri except its southeast corner.

Snowfall will be above normal in the central and southern parts of that region, including Kansas, and above normal in the northern part, the almanac says.

It predicts temperatures in the area will be 3 degrees below average in December, 9 degrees below average in January and 4 degrees above average in February.

The coldest periods will be in mid- and late December, early and late January and early to mid-February while the snowiest periods will be in late December, early January and mid-February, the almanac says.

For the far western third of the state, the almanac predicts the winter will be mild and snowy in the upper half and mild and wet in the lower half.

What is the National Weather Service predicting?

Ninety days is the longest time period for which the National Weather Service puts out advance forecasts, with the current predictions covering the months of September, October and November.

Those 90-day outlooks for all of the state except its southeast corner say Topeka has between a 33% chance and a 40% chance of experiencing above normal temperatures between Sept. 1 and Nov. 30 while precipitation will most likely be below normal.