Predicting success in any field of endeavor is always difficult and in many ways, highly subjective. The Common Core State Standards (CCSS) contain objectives which lead to readiness for college and careers. This means that it might well lead to success, if followed religiously. Those are claims which will be difficult to achieve. Nevertheless, there is much discussion and debate about developing tests which will measure success along the way in pupils continually developing readiness for college and/or careers.
The SAT and the ACT are two standardized tests which measure how well a student will do in college. Since they are developed by human beings, even though they are highly knowledgeable in their respective academic fields, leave leeway in student test results for error in measurement. This is known as the Standard Error of Measurement (SEM). Thus, if a student receives a score of eighteen on the total test and the SEM is two, the range would come in between 18+2 and 18-2. The true score then could be as high as 20 and as low as 16.
Now coming back to the possible CCSS test containing predictive validity, the test attempts to measure if the instruction is on track and if the learning opportunities provided by the teacher align with the stated objectives. Also, the administered test then is to measure success in college/careers. Thus, if a pupil scores high on the CCSS predictive validity test, he/she should also do well in college and in a career. That is a difficult undertaking and the test results won't always get it right. There, of course, have been students whose ACT test results were somewhat low, but still managed to do well in college. Parents have asked, "Should my child go onto to college, since the ACT or SAT score was not what was desired, even though the student did well in high school?" The answer is ,"Yes," in most cases. The best predictor is, "Can the student do satisfactory work in college courses." Self discipline is an important factor here.
— Marlow Ediger, North Newton